Morocco and Spain’s U-23 squads will compete in the 2024 Olympic semi-finals, as their senior national teams did in the 2022 World Cup.

Morocco beat the United States 4-0 in a match they controlled from start to finish. Spain beat Japan to reach the semi-finals, but their 3-0 score did them proud because the match was much closer than it showed.

Find out why I’m in for a surprise in my predictions and free bet selections for the Morocco v Spain match on Monday, August 5th.

Morocco vs. Spain prediction and best bet

Atlas Lions Advance to Finals

Match prediction
Morocco will advance (+138)

My analysis

If you just look at the score, it’s easy to think Spain had the upper hand over Japan, but the truth is they were lucky at both ends of the pitch.

Spain’s first two goals came from shots from outside the penalty area by Fermin Lopez, both of which should have been stopped by Japan goalkeeper Leo Kokubo. Their third goal came from a corner kick that led to Spain forward Abel Ruiz scoring after Kokubo headed the ball around a defender.

At the other end of the pitch, Japan had an equaliser ruled out for a narrow offside in the first half and hit the post with a header just before half-time. They deflected one off the post as they tried to get back into the match in the second half.

Spain’s journey to the Olympics has been full of good fortune, starting with the group stage. They were defeated by Morocco in last year’s AFCON U-23 final and were defeated by Egypt, who will play in the other semi-final.

Before that, they had drawn 1-1 with the Dominican Republic before their opponents were shown a red card at half-time, and they narrowly beat an Uzbekistan team that was nowhere near their talent.

Morocco, on the other hand, punish teams with their pressure and excellent counter-attacks. The Atlas Lions beat Argentina before suffering a shock defeat to Ukraine, but they have outscored their opponents 7-0 in their last two games and dominated from start to finish.

The way these teams play is in Morocco’s favor. They are relentless and force their opponents into losing the ball and thrive against teams that want more possession. Japan showed that Spain are vulnerable to pressure and that can be done on the break.

Morocco will not waste the chance that Japan did. It may not happen in normal time, but when the match is over, bet on the African nation booking a place in the final.

Goalkeepers have a lot of work ahead of them

My best bet
Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS – Yes (+137)

My analysis

Morocco have kept a clean sheet in their last two games, but not just because of their defensive prowess. The Americans lacked a reliable goal-scoring option in attack and Iraq posed little threat.

It won’t be that easy to leave Spain out and I’d wager it won’t happen at all. Spain have multiple options in attack with Ruiz and Lopez leading the way. They’ve scored nine goals in the tournament, only Morocco have scored more with 10.

At this point, the Moroccan side have a successful striker in Soufiane Rahimi, with five goals so far, and they also have an outstanding attacking full-back in Achraf Hakimi, with the PSG player scoring against the United States.

Neither of these teams know what it means to back down and defend, and both will be going for a win from the opening whistle. Fatigue is also a real concern due to the short rest period between games, which tends to affect defence more than attack, leading to mental errors.

This should be one of the most entertaining matches of the entire tournament, and with neither team able to keep a clean sheet, I expect at least three goals. At a price of +137, I like a parlay of the two, and would play them at odds as low as +125.

Morocco vs Spain odds

• Radiate: Morocco +1.5 (-460) | Spain -1.5 (+340)
• Money Line: Morocco +138 | Spain -170
• Over Under: Over 2.5 (-105) | Under 2.5 (-129)

Morocco vs Spain match information

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