We recently wrote about the defensive changes the Toronto Maple Leafs made during the off-season, and examined the signing of Chris Tanev to replace the departed TJ Brodie.

Today, we will be comparing Mark Giordano and Oliver Ekman-Larsson using the same parameters we used for the Tanev/Brodie comparison. Specifically, we want to determine if replacing Giordano with Ekman-Larsson is a significant improvement.

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The first thing that stands out is the age difference. Giordano turned 40 just before the start of last season. Ekman-Larsson will be 33 on July 17. Ekman-Larsson is seven years younger than Giordano.

Comparing Ekman-Larsson and Giordano’s “Old School” Numbers

First, we’ll look at the “Old School” numbers from the 2023-24 regular season:

actor	General Practitioner	TOI	G	A	P	+/-	The hits	Blocks	DZS
Giordano	46	16:37	3	6	9	+10	51	86	46.6%
Ekman-Larsson	80	18:34	9	23	32	+10	105	70	42.7%

There are big differences in the games each player played last season. Giordano suffered two injuries. The first was an upper-body injury in a game on Nov. 28, 2023. Then, after missing time to deal with the death of his father in March, he suffered a concussion in his second game on Feb. 29. When he returned, he struggled to stay on the Maple Leafs’ roster. As a result, he only played in 46 games.

Ekman-Larsson missed two games due to an upper-body injury he suffered against the Buffalo Sabres on April 13.

Ekman-Larsson was a top-pairing, top-four defenseman his entire NHL career until last season when he signed a one-year deal with the Florida Panthers. He was relegated to a third-pair role with the Panthers. When Giordano was healthy enough to play, most of that ice time was on the Maple Leafs’ third pair. Despite both players being on the bottom pair of their potential teams, Ekman-Larsson still played nearly two full minutes more per game than Giordano.

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When it comes to offensive talent, on the surface, there seems to be no comparison between the two players. Ekman-Larsson’s average of two extra minutes per game were all on the power play. He scored nine goals to Giordano’s three. He had 23 assists to Giordano’s six. That gives Ekman-Larsson 32 points to Giordano’s six.

Given the 34-game difference in their games played, if we were to increase Giordano’s scoring pace to match Ekman-Larsson’s games by 80 games, Giordano would have five goals and 16 assists for a total of 21 points. That still gives Ekman-Larsson an 11-point advantage over Giordano. But all 11 of those points came on the power play. That basically means that the two players are scoring at roughly the same pace on five-five possessions.

As a result, we give Ekman-Larsson more offensive advantage than Giordano, but not by much.

It’s difficult to compare hits and blocked shots based on the difference in games played. To make it easier, we’ll extend each player’s numbers to an 82-game season.

actor	The hits	Blocks
Giordano	91	153
Ekman-Larsson	108	72

Ekman-Larsson has the upper hand in shots, but Giordano’s blocking speed is twice as fast as Ekman-Larsson’s.

The final statistic on the chart is zone starts. Both players started the majority of their shifts in the offensive zone. Ekman-Larsson started 57.3% of their shifts at the other team’s end of the lane, while Giordano started 53.4% ​​of the time.

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One stat we haven’t mentioned yet is plus/minus. Both players finished with plus-10s. Considering Ekman-Larsson played 34 more games than Giordano on a better team than the Maple Leafs, and finished with a +68 in goals to the Maple Leafs’ +40, Giordano’s overall efficiency could have been better than Ekman-Larsson’s. At the very least, the numbers don’t necessarily show that one player is significantly better than the other.

Comparison of Ekman-Larsson and Giordano Using Advanced Statistics

Let’s see if the analytics show a similar or different picture. Here are the numbers for each player’s five-on-five offense on the ice. (Here are the full names of hockey analytics acronyms: Girlfriend: Goals; According to 60: Per 60 minutes of play; xgf: Expected Targets; YSK: For Goal Chances; and, HDSCF: For High Danger Goal Chances.)

actor	Minute	Girlfriend	According to 60	xgf	According to 60	YSK	According to 60	HDSCF	According to 60
Giordano	629.6	32	3.05	31	2.95	359	34.2	150	14.3
Ekman-Larsson	1130.9	49	2.60	53	2.81	548	29.1	223	11.8

These numbers suggest that Giordano had a more positive impact on the Maple Leafs’ offensive game than Ekman-Larsson did with the Panthers. But Toronto was the better offensive team. The Maple Leafs scored 38 more goals than Florida. We should also note that Ekman-Larrson started 4% more shifts in the opposition’s zone than Giordano. There’s nothing here that would give either player a distinct advantage.

What about defense? (Here are the full names of hockey analytics acronyms: G.A.: Goals Conceded; According to 60: Per 60 minutes of play; xGA: Expected Goals; SCA: Against Goal Chances; and Master’s Degree: High Danger Goal Chances (Against)

actor	Minute	G.A.	According to 60	xGA	According to 60	SCA	According to 60	Master’s Degree	According to 60
Giordano	629.6	25	2.38	26.5	2.53	258	24.6	112	10.7
Ekman-Larsson	1130.9	40	2.12	44.3	2.35	443	23.5	209	11.1

There’s not much difference in the two players’ on-ice defensive numbers either. Ekman-Larsson has a slight edge in every category except High Danger Goal Chances, where Giordano excels. Just as we think it’s important to note that the Maple Leafs are the better offensive team and their overall numbers could positively impact Giordano’s offensive numbers, it’s also worth noting that the Panthers are the superior defensive team. Florida has conceded 63 fewer goals than the Maple Leafs. This could have affected Ekman-Larsson’s defensive numbers.

The advantage in playoff performance goes to Ekman-Larsson because Giordano was a scratch and didn’t play a game for the Maple Leafs in the postseason. Meanwhile, Ekman-Larsson played in 24 games for the Panthers, scoring two goals, adding six assists for eight points and a plus-1 plus/minus. He’ll also bring a Stanley Cup ring with him when he steps on the ice for the Maple Leafs.

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In the postseason, Ekman-Larsson played entirely in a third-pairing role. He also saw his ice time drop by three minutes per game, to 15:27. However, playing that role for a Stanley Cup-winning team is certainly better than not playing at all for a team that gets eliminated in the first round.

Bottom Line Comparison Between Ekman-Larsson and Giordano

Ekman-Larsson is seven years younger than Giordano and has a few more years ahead of him, even in a base-pairing role, so we have to conclude that he is a step ahead of Giordano. However, Ekman-Larsson hasn’t put up much better numbers than Giordano when he’s on the ice. Ekman-Larsson has just had a lot more time on the ice and his team has won everything he’s been on the roster with. But that’s not the same game-changing move as replacing Brodie with Tanev.

The question for next season is where will Ekman-Larsson fit into the Maple Leafs’ lineup? The most likely spot seems to be on the left side of the third pair (he’s a lefty). After that, it’s a matter of who he’ll pair with. The three current candidates are Timothy Liljegren, Jani Hakanpaa and Conor Timmins.

With Ekman-Larsson one season removed from being a top-four defenseman and the Maple Leafs not having a clear top-four defenseman to play on the left, he could find himself on the left side of the second pair. If that happens, with Morgan Rielly and Chris Tanev forming the first pair, we have to think that Jake McCabe would be Ekman-Larsson’s most likely partner on the second pair.

We’ll see how this turns out.

(Note: I would like to thank Stan Smith, a longtime Maple Leafs fan who collaborated with me on this article. You can find Stan’s Facebook profile here.)