Overall a calm day, unless there is wind, which is very likely. But a relatively easy start in terms of profile, with only one small climb to consider throughout the day. Sprinters will be happy – but the pressure and risks will be skyrocketing as this is the last opportunity for a regular group sprint in the whole Tour! (There is no Champs-Elysées this year)

It’s all about the final sprint, and it’s not technical. The riders won’t be going deep into the city, but finishing on the outskirts. The final corner comes with 2.5 kilometres to go, and then it’s a straight line to the finish. But remember that the peloton will enter three small roundabouts in the last two kilometres, and the last one will come with just… 450 metres to go. So positioning is very important at this point.

Weather

The stage will not be easy at all. Probably a few sprinters will not make it. It will be very hot and very windy throughout the day. It will come from the northwest, which means crosswinds throughout the day and also open roads. Especially the first 85 kilometers will be quite threatening. Uphill, there is no sign that Tadej Pogačar can be beaten and so I expect Visma to try his luck once again, trying to surprise and gain time urgently. If the sprinters reach the finish, they will finish with a headwind.

Favorites

Jasper Phillips – Alpecin, who has won two sprints, has little to do on this stage except work for Philipsen and hope for a third. The headwind sprint is very good for him and I believe the Alpecin riders are in an improving form and would be big favourites to win in a regular sprint.

Wout van Aert – Visma is sure to be ahead. Van Aert is not in top form, but you don’t need that to sprint. He came very close to winning in the sprints and is likely to be in the front group if the race splits here. The more sprinters are dropped the better for him and if the race is attacked from a distance he might have a chance even if he makes some turns while working for Jonas Vingegaard. Christophe LaporteThe player, who is in very good form, can run for himself, lead and even attack in the final.

Biniam Girmay – I dare to say that the green jersey is in the bag. Girmay is not the best pure sprinter but he raced very well throughout the Tour. With the stages on this stage, even without the best team, he would probably do well. In a group sprint, he could definitely win the fourth stage.

After getting through the tough mountain stage, the sprinters will happily take the rest day. This stage could be the last of the Tour for several riders. Like the classic riders Arnaud De Lie, Marijn van den Berg and in shape Pascal Ackerman If crosswinds hurt the peloton he could perform very well and take the win from a reduced bunch sprint.

Mark Cavendish, Dylan Groenewegen, Fernando Gaviria, Alexander Kristoff, Bryan Coquard, Ryan Gibbons And Anthony Turgis What other drivers should be considered for a strong result?

This is the last opportunity for a few riders who are real heavyweights and a breakout in the final week could be successful even on a day like this. The remaining hilly stage may give a few people a reason to save themselves, but riders like Stefan Bissegger And Jonas Abrahamsen could be given a chance and it could be dangerous.

Prediction Tour de France 2024 stage 16:

*** Jasper Philipsen, Biniam Girmay, Wout van Aert
** Pascal Ackermann, Arnaud De Lie
* Mark Cavendish, Dylan Groenewegen, Marijn van den Berg, Alexander Kristoff, Fernando Gaviria, Sam Bennett, Ryan Gibbons

To choose: Wout van Aert

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